Rachel Reeves takes glory for shock GDP jump - who's she going to blame next month?

She's no doubt as surprised as everybody else that Britain's economy grew more than expected in the first three years months of the year.

Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, according to the Office for National Statistics.

That was marginally better than the 0.6% analyst had predicted.

And it was a big improvement on the meagre 0.1% seen in the fourth quarter of 2024, not to mention the zero growth in the third quarter.

When the UK stalled during the first six months of her tenure, Reeves blamed global instability, the markets, the previous government - anyone but herself.

Now there's a flicker of life, she's suddenly the mastermind behind the surge.

Reeves said today's figures show that despite global uncertainty, she is "making the right choices now in the national interest".

She didn't stop there: "Since the election we have already had four interest rate cuts, signed two trade deals, saved British Steel and given a pay rise to millions by increasing the minimum wage. Our plan for change is working."

Apparently, falling interest rates are now her doing - even though rates are dropping faster in the eurozone and elsewhere.

No mention, of course, of what helped kill off growth last year: her own October Budget, packed with tax grabs and spending pledges that spooked investors and battered confidence.

Nor is there a word about the £25billion national insurance hike that landed in April, slammed as a tax on jobs that's already driven up employment.

The impact won't be seen in today's figures, which run only to March. But they'll show up next month.

Still, fair play. This morning's result is better than expected, and no politician on earth could resist the temptation to bathe in the reflected glory.

As Reeves modestly noted: "In the first three months of the year, the UK economy has grown faster than the US, Canada, France, Italy and Germany."

And while Sir Keir Starmer's trade deals with India and the US have drawn fire, they're arguably better than no deals at all.

Now all eyes are on whether he takes a firmer line with Brussels, or quietly caves to the EU like he did to Trump, and dilutes Brexit.

Reeves should enjoy today. but today, something's gone right. I'd crow too.

That said, it won't last.

Donald Trump may be softening his tone on tariffs for now, but that can change on a whim. Damage from his earlier threats will show up in April's data.

As will those NI hikes.

The Bank of England warns inflation could rise to 3.5% by summer, potentially putting further rate cuts on ice.

If Reeves is claiming credit for falling rates now, will she take the blame if they stall? Fat chance.

It's also worth noting that today's 0.7% growth is still lower than the 0.9% posted in the same quarter of last year, under those supposedly useless Tories.

So yes, celebrate the win. But don't get carried away.

With the International Monetary Fund, Office for Budget Responsibility and Bank of England all slashing UK growth forecasts by half for 2025 as a whole, the opportunity for self-congratulation may be short-lived.

Under this government, we must learn to be grateful for small mercies. Today, we got one. Tomorrow? I'm not so sure.