Rachel Reeves, I almost feel sorry for you - but there's one simple reason I can't

One could be forgiven for feeling a little sorry for the UK's beleaguered Chancellor of the Exchequer as she faces a steady stream of bad news: increasing unemployment, declining private sector output, business confidence at one of its lowest ever levels, and government borrowing revealed to be £14.6 billion higher than had been forecasted just a month earlier. And perhaps I would, were it not for one simple fact: this really is a problem of Labour's own making.

Ministers will no doubt want to only blame Donald Trump's tariffs as the reason for the declining economic outlook. Of course, these are having a negative impact, with growth forecasts taking a hit across the world. However, many of our economic problems were apparent long before the US president made his announcement. As the International Monetary Fund's chief economist noted "domestic factors are probably the biggest one"' in their decision to slash the UK's growth outlook - and these can be traced back to last October's budget.

Rachel Reeves may have talked the talk when seeking election, promising that Labour would be "the most pro-business government this country has seen". If this is still their intention now in office, they are going about it in the most curious way. The increase to employers' National Insurance contributions as part of a £40 billion tax hike, alongside major new burdens and costs being introduced through the Employment Rights Bill, have been widely cited as a significant barrier to businesses expanding and creating more jobs.

We should also be alarmed by an increasing number of businesses and entrepreneurs who are willing to vote with their feet and look overseas. One recent survey suggested that 38% of small business owners - who make up the backbone of the UK economy - have either decided to leave or are considering leaving the country.

Yet Labour seems unwilling to learn this lesson and take a different course. They do deserve some credit for making challenging public spending choices in order to try and fund a much needed boost to the defence budget, as I and many others had argued previously. But instead of doubling down on this approach, even if it causes disquiet amongst their own backbenchers, there is speculation that the Chancellor will instead bring forward further tax rises later this year. This is despite the fact that her existing plans will already see the tax take hit an historic high of 38.2% of GDP by 2029/30.

Further tax rises mean the Government will either have to ditch its pre-election pledge "not to raise taxes on working people" - although we know more than three quarters of the recent National Insurance rise on business will actually be passed on to workers through lower real wages - or again seek to target increases on businesses or investors which would predictably have the same effect as before. Neither option would do anything to show that Britain is open for business and that a drive for growth is anything but a slogan.

It should go without saying that without thriving businesses there won't be the jobs people need, nor the tax revenues to fund high-quality public services. However, it feels like this does in fact need to be said again. Labour's pro-businesses promises quickly need to become more than just words. If they don't, that stream of bad economic news may soon become an unrelenting torrent - and there will be no one else to blame.

Iain Carter is a former Conservative Party Political Director who has also served as a special adviser in a number of government departments